Decarbonisation pathways for energy-intensive primary industries in a European sector-coupled system

The proposed study aims to investigate the transition to a fully sustainable sector-coupled energy system, focusing on investment decisions in low-carbon technologies in the industry sector. There are few openly accessible scientific publications that can serve as a basis for sound investment planning in the industry sector. While the industry is ready to play a central role in this transformation, the current pace of investment is still lagging, primarily due to the high level of uncertainty about the future technological landscape. Factors driving investment decisions, such as future costs, fuel availability and resource accessibility of available low-carbon technology options, remain uncertain and require structured investigation.

To tackle this issue, we propose an in-depth exploration of major industrial sectors through the lens of a sector-coupled energy system model. The focus will be on distinct industries, for example the cement industry, and enhance the level of detail with a specific emphasis on exploring alternative low-carbon technologies.

Our approach involves the application of an investment optimization framework to derive cost-optimal investment paths spanning multiple years. By conducting a scenario-based robustness analysis on selected techno-economic parameters, alternative expansion and investment paths will be explored and resilient technologies examined.

The research seeks to bridge the gap between industry readiness to invest in low-carbon technologies and their current deployment and roll-out planning. By mapping out industrial sectors within an energy system modelling framework and considering low-carbon technologies, we aim to empower industry stakeholders with insights to navigate the complexities of a sustainable future.

Research Question:

The central research questions will revolve around the decarbonisation of industrial sectors. We seek to understand how the process of decarbonisation is influenced by resource availability, including hydrogen (H2), renewable energy (EE), and other resources. Furthermore, we will consider cost assumptions and the broader contextual factors, such as carbon pricing.

Methodology Focus:

We will employ scenario analysis to answer critical questions. For example, at what price levels for hydrogen, electricity, methane, and other technologies do industry stakeholders make critical investment decisions? By deriving investible paths from these scenarios, we aim to provide actionable recommendations. Additionally, we will incorporate a robustness analysis and a sensitivity analysis to enhance the usability of our findings.

Partner Roles:

This study proposal seeks to acquire research partners from industry, universities, or industry associations for an ambitious research initiative in the field of energy system modelling. The overarching goal is to address the pressing issue of achieving climate neutrality by decarbonizing industrial sectors. We are actively seeking research partners who can play crucial roles in this endeavour. Industry partners or associations are essential to provide valuable technology alternatives and real-world data, ensuring our models accurately capture system dynamics. Furthermore, universities with expertise in industrial technology and innovation will bring academic perspective to our research.

In summary, this study presents an opportunity to collaborate on an energy system modelling project, with the aim of guiding the decarbonisation of selected industries. Through the collaboration, we can address climate change challenges with rigorous modelling, industry insights, and academic expertise. We invite interested partners from industry and academia to join us on this important journey toward a sustainable future.